The Automotive Disruption Radar is a biannual analysis of market trends related to disruption in the global automotive industry. Its latest findings are based on field research and a survey of 23,000+ car users across 23 markets (Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, UAE, UK, USA). Information is also drawn from external sources such as leading mobility experts and major industry reports.
Each nation is scored along 26 indicators, grouped into five dimensions. The ADR aims to answer key questions such as: which factors are driving change in automotive ecosystems; how do these factors evolve over time; and what can decision makers do to best manage disruption?
Ultimately, the ADR is a go-to decision-making tool for senior executives in the mobility sector. It is the established and only tool in the market measuring the change in the Automotive industry.
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Data Overview
Definition of Indicators
| Indicator | Definition | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility concept preferences | % of people knowing at least 1 person that did not want to buy a car because they exclusively use other mobility concepts, rounded to 5% | 0% ≤x <20% | 20% ≤x <40% | 40% ≤x <60% | 60% ≤x <80% | 80% ≤x <100% | x≥100% | |
| Autonomous vehicle preference | % of people who would still buy a car if autonomous robo-cabs were cheaper per trip, rounded to 5% | 0% ≤x <5% | 5% ≤x <15% | 15% ≤x <30% | 30% ≤x <50% | 50% ≤x <75% | x≥75% | |
| Mobility planning | % of people using an app at least once a week, rounded to 5% | 0% ≤x <5% | 5% ≤x <15% | 15% ≤x <30% | 30% ≤x <50% | 50% ≤x <75% | x≥75% | |
| Digitized culture preference | “% of people with interest to directly buy on the internet, rounded to 5% “ | 0% ≤x <5% | 5% ≤x <15% | 15% ≤x <30% | 30% ≤x <50% | 50% ≤x <75% | x≥75% | |
| EV preference | Share of potential EV buyers,rounded to 5% | 0% ≤x <5% | 5% ≤x <15% | 15% ≤x <30% | 30% ≤x <50% | 50% ≤x <75% | x≥75% | |
| Mobility behaviour | Car usage as a percentage of distance driven, rounded to 5% | 100% ≤x <80% | 60% ≤x <80% | 60% ≤x <40% | 40% ≤x ≤25% | 25% ≤x <10% | x≤10% | |
| EV/PHEV sales | % of EVs/PHEVs of total vehicle sales | 0% ≤x <1% | 1% ≤x <2% | 2% ≤x <5% | 5% ≤x <10% | 10% ≤x <20% | x≥20% | |
| Customer curiosity | Customer interest across the dimensions autonomous (A), electric (E), and mobility services (M) (from 0 to 100) | M, A and E below 20% | 2 dimensions below 20% | None below 20% | 1 above 40%;none below 20% | 2 above 40%; none below 20% | All above 40% | |
| Type approval process | Progress regarding type approval process for autonomous vehicles | No discussion | Initial discussions ongoing | Basic regulatory scene for type approval set | Regulation for concrete type approval process in progress | Regulation for concrete type appro-val process in decision phase | No limitation for type approval | |
| Restrictions for ICEs | City country score / max country score | Score=0 | 0 ≤Score <5% | 5% ≤Score <10 | 10% ≤Score <20 | 20 ≤Score <50 | Score≥50% | |
| CO2 legislation | Current CO2-emission target in grams – ∆ to base-line 2025 | 15% less strict than baseline | 10% less strict than baseline | 5% less strict than baseline | Baseline | 5% stricter than baseline | 10% stricter than baseline | |
| Automotive association activities | % share of positive actions/press releases on total number of actions/releases | 0 ≤x <10% | 10% ≤x <30% | 30% ≤x <50% | 50% ≤x <75% | 75% ≤x <100% | x≥100% | |
| Autonomous vehicle – Computing power | Achieved step in reaching computer power necessary for autonomous driving | No activity | Feasibility proven | Development road maps in place | Roadmap-milestone achieved | Commercialization -> widespread adoption | Widespread adoption | |
| Patent activites | % share of patents filed within automotive concerned with autonomous tech | 0 ≤x <0.5% | 0.5% ≤x <1% | 1% ≤x <2% | 2% ≤x <5% | 5% ≤x <10% | x≥10% | |
| Battery cost – EVs | Deviation from latest forecast of 120 EUR/kWh in 2020 as baseline (3 points) | ≥132 EUR/kWh | <132 EUR/kWh | <126 EUR/kWh | <120 EUR/kWh | <114 EUR/kWh | <108 EUR/kWh | |
| Venture Capital invest – Mobility | Total relevant VC capital [USD bn] | 0 ≤x <0.1 | 0.1 ≤x <2.5 | 2.5 ≤x <5 | 5 ≤x <10 | 10 ≤x <15 | x≥15 | |
| Venture Capital invest – Artificial intelligence | Total relevant VC capital [USD bn] | 0 ≤x <0.1 | 0.1 ≤x <2.5 | 2.5 ≤x <5 | 5 ≤x <10 | 10 ≤x <15 | x≥15 | |
| Mobile network – 5G coverage | Achieved step in rollout of 5G network | No activity | Feasibility proven | Develop-ment road-maps in place | Frequency allocation achieved | Start of service commerciallization | Widespread adoption (≥ 10% users 5G) | |
| EV/PHEV charging infrastructure | Charging stations per km roadways | 0% ≤x <1% | 1% ≤x <2% | 2% ≤x <5% | 5% ≤x <10% | 10% ≤x <15% | x≥15% | |
| Multi modal mobility | Share of trips in which more than one possible mode of transportation is available | 0% ≤x <30 | 30% ≤x <45% | “45% ≤x <60 “ | 60% ≤x <75% | 75% ≤x <90% | x≥90% | |
| Vehicle-2-vehicle communication | % share of models with V2V functions in total models in the market | No vehicles with V2V function | First V2V functions in market | 5% of models with V2 | 10% of models with V2 | 20% of models with V2 | V2V mandated in plac | |
| Test roads – Autonomous vehicle | of test tracks in operation, scale from 0 to 5 | Tests not allowed | 1 to 3 test tracks | 4 to 5 test tracks | High number of public test track | Test on streets in selected region | No limitation for test | |
| Automotive products (Level 4+) | % share of “”Level 4 city vehicles”” in total car parc | No Activity | Feasibility proven | Development road-maps in place | Roadmap milestone achieved | Commercialization -> widespread adoption | Widespread adoption | |
| R&D intensity – Autonomous driving | FTEs listed on LinkedIn [‘000 employees] | 0 ≤x <10 | 10 ≤x <25 | 25 ≤x <50 | 50 ≤x <100 | 100 ≤x <150 | x≥150 | |
| EV portfolio | % share of EV models in total models currently on offer | 0 ≤x <1% | 1% ≤x <10% | 10% ≤x <20% | 20% ≤x <30% | 30% ≤x <40% | x≥40% | |
| Amount of shared vehicles | Share of shared vehicles in car parc [in %] | ≤1% | 1% <x ≤3% | 3% <x ≤5% | 5% <x ≤10% | 10% <x ≤25% | x>25% |
Insights