The automotive industry is experiencing significant disruption, driven by new technologies and geopolitical events that will reshape markets and supply chains over the next 15 years.
As the industry’s center of gravity shifts, uncertainty remains regarding whether Asia or Western players will dominate by 2040.
Research indicates that the anticipated global shift towards innovative, shared mobility solutions will primarily occur in metropolitan areas, which represent a small fraction of overall vehicle travel.
Four key megatrends—Polarization, Automation, Connectivity, and Electrification (PACE)—are identified as pivotal forces shaping the industry’s transformation by 2040. With sales volumes and revenue increasingly shifting to China and the Global South, while Western markets face “peak auto” in new vehicle sales, stakeholders must prepare for a long journey filled with challenges and adapt their strategies accordingly.